Nobody should take a four-to-six-game record seriously, and yet everybody does. The standings after two weeks are mostly the bounces, but the chances each team creates and allows settle faster, so the gap between the two is the most useful thing to look at in October.
Everything below covers games through Saturday, October 10, from our team rankings. The share of expected goals is at five on five; PDO is five-on-five shooting percentage plus save percentage, where 1.000 is roughly average and the extremes rarely last.
The starts that look real
| Team | Record | 5v5 xG share (rank) | PDO (rank) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas | 5-1-0 | 62.2% (1st) | .978 (21st) |
| Carolina | 4-1-1 | 60.7% (2nd) | .970 (24th) |
| Tampa Bay | 4-1-0 | 59.1% (4th) | 1.009 (14th) |
| Edmonton | 4-0-1 | 58.0% (7th) | 1.067 (5th) |
Vegas and Carolina are the two most convincing teams in the league so far, and both have done it with below-average luck: each has a PDO under .980. Tampa Bay is close behind with ordinary percentages. Edmonton's chances are good too, but the Oilers are also shooting 18.5% at five on five, which no team keeps up, so expect a few more of their games to look like the underlying numbers.
Better than their records
| Team | Record | 5v5 xG share (rank) | PDO (rank) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 2-1-2 | 59.8% (3rd) | 1.009 (15th) |
| New Jersey | 2-2-0 | 56.9% (8th) | .946 (30th) |
| Detroit | 1-3-1 | 55.1% (11th) | .971 (23rd) |
| Buffalo | 2-3-0 | 53.9% (13th) | .913 (31st) |
| Calgary | 0-5-0 | 45.9% (25th) | .873 (32nd) |
Florida has the third-best expected-goals share in the league and a .500 record, which usually resolves in Florida's favour. New Jersey and Detroit are both controlling play and shooting 5% or worse, the kind of number that turns around without anyone changing anything. Buffalo's problem is at the other end: an .844 five-on-five save percentage, the worst of any team that is winning its share of the chances.
Calgary is the most extreme case. The Flames are 0-5-0 with a below-average expected-goals share, so they are not a good team in disguise, but a .873 PDO, last in the league by a distance, says they are not an 0-5-0 team either.
Records running ahead of the play
| Team | Record | 5v5 xG share (rank) | PDO (rank) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa | 4-1-0 | 47.2% (23rd) | 1.042 (7th) |
| Anaheim | 4-1-0 | 48.7% (21st) | 1.011 (13th) |
| Winnipeg | 3-1-1 | 43.8% (26th) | .991 (20th) |
| Seattle | 3-2-0 | 46.8% (24th) | 1.097 (1st) |
| Washington | 3-1-0 | 49.9% (18th) | 1.075 (2nd) |
| San Jose | 3-2-0 | 33.4% (31st) | .948 (29th) |
Ottawa and Anaheim share the third-best points percentage in the league while being outchanced at five on five. Seattle and Washington have the two highest PDOs in the league, and Seattle's 16.2% shooting is the kind of number that comes down. San Jose is the strangest line on the board: 3-2-0 with the second-worst expected-goals share in the league. Winnipeg is the one to watch here. Its percentages are ordinary, so the results have come from somewhere other than five-on-five luck: special teams, with a 28.6% power play and a 90.9% penalty kill. Those are hard to keep up while being outchanced this much at even strength.
The bottom of the table
Four teams are under 40% of the five-on-five expected goals: Philadelphia at 30.6%, San Jose at 33.4%, Chicago at 37.3% and Vancouver at 39.6%. For Chicago (1-5-0) and Vancouver (2-4-0) the record and the play agree. Philadelphia's winless start, the first in franchise history to reach seven games, has its own deeper look.
How to read this
Four to six games is only a few hundred minutes of five-on-five hockey, so none of these numbers is settled. But expected goals are built from every shot rather than the handful that go in, which is why they firm up sooner than goal differential and points. Check back in November: the teams whose record and expected-goals share disagree now are the ones most likely to move.
You can rebuild any of these views in the team rankings table: sort by five-on-five xG% or PDO, filter to the top or bottom ten, and share it. For the difference between the five-on-five numbers here and our all-situations BlueLine xG, see why our team pages show two expected-goals numbers.