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Loading…By the model, Guentzel is a top-tier winger: a 91.5 overall, 19th of 384 at his position.
The standout tool is finishing (93), backed by play driving (88); penalty killing (45) is the part of his game that grades lowest.
Over 10 rated seasons since 2016-17 he has averaged 90.9, peaking at 96.4 in 2019-20; last season's 91.1 was down 3.9 points.
At $9M through 2030-31 before unrestricted free agency, the model rates the deal Underpaid: his expected value is $12M, so the Tampa Bay Lightning save roughly $2.95M a season against his production.
His cap hit is the 4th-largest on the Tampa Bay Lightning NHL roster and uses 8.7% of the $104M ceiling; the club currently has $3.66M in cap space.
| Component | Rating (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Offense | 86 |
| Defense | 63 |
| Play driving | 88 |
| Finishing | 93 |
| Power play | 87 |
| Penalty kill | 45 |
| Season | Team | GP | Overall | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | TBL | 81 | 91.1 | 1.4 |
| 2024-25 | TBL | 80 | 95 | 1.7 |
| 2023-24 | PIT | 67 | 95.2 | 1.7 |
| 2022-23 | PIT | 78 | 92.1 | 1.2 |
| 2021-22 | PIT | 76 | 94 | 1.5 |
| 2020-21 | PIT | 56 | 93.3 | 1.2 |
| 2019-20 | PIT | 39 | 96.4 | 1.6 |
| 2018-19 | PIT | 82 | 92.8 | 1.6 |
| 2017-18 | PIT | 82 | 75 | 0.6 |
| 2016-17 | PIT | 40 | 83.7 | 1.2 |
Other TBL wingers by rating: Nikita Kucherov (94.1), Brandon Hagel (93.9), Pontus Holmberg (58), Gage Goncalves (51.1). See the full Tampa Bay Lightning cap sheet.
How we rate players: each skater's overall is a percentile (0-100) built from offense, defense, play driving, finishing, power-play and penalty-kill impact against players at the same position; goalies are rated on goals saved above expected. Contract value compares the cap hit with the salary the model expects for that level of production, age and position. Figures are updated as new games and signings arrive.