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Loading…These are the current favorites for every major NHL award, taken from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Each percentage is the share of simulated seasons in which that player finishes first under the award's rule: points for the Art Ross, goals for the Rocket Richard, goals saved above expected for the Vezina, and a blend of production and defensive impact for the Hart, Norris and Selke.
Most points, goals breaking ties. A real probability of leading the league.
| Player | Team | Proj. pts | Win share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | EDM | 143.3 | 81.9% |
| Nathan MacKinnon | COL | 123 | 10.1% |
| Nikita Kucherov | TBL | 119.2 | 6.4% |
| Leon Draisaitl | EDM | 109.8 | 1.2% |
| David Pastrnak | BOS | 100.6 | 0.2% |
Most goals. Tied leaders are all counted, so shares can exceed 100%.
| Player | Team | Proj. pts | Win share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | EDM | 109.8 | 18.4% |
| Kirill Kaprizov | MIN | 90.3 | 17.6% |
| Cole Caufield | MTL | 79.2 | 14.1% |
| Kyle Connor | WPG | 85.6 | 13.2% |
| Nathan MacKinnon | COL | 123 | 8.5% |
Scoring plus a defensive-rating adjustment for skaters; goals saved above expected for goalies. Not fitted to ballots.
| Player | Team | Proj. pts | Win share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | EDM | 143.3 | 91.2% |
| Leon Draisaitl | EDM | 109.8 | 3.0% |
| Nathan MacKinnon | COL | 123 | 2.9% |
| Nikita Kucherov | TBL | 119.2 | 1.2% |
| Evan Bouchard | EDM | 100.7 | 0.7% |
Production, with goaltending on expected goals. Player voting and reputation are not modeled.
| Player | Team | Proj. pts | Win share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | EDM | 143.3 | 72.1% |
| Nathan MacKinnon | COL | 123 | 14.9% |
| Nikita Kucherov | TBL | 119.2 | 7.6% |
| Leon Draisaitl | EDM | 109.8 | 3.6% |
| David Pastrnak | BOS | 100.6 | 0.6% |
Projected points plus the BLM defensive rating, weighted by games played, so this is not a defensemen's scoring race. Defensemen without a rating are excluded.
| Player | Team | Proj. pts | Win share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Bouchard | EDM | 100.7 | 72.7% |
| Quinn Hughes | MIN | 88.5 | 25.2% |
| Cale Makar | COL | 88.7 | 1.3% |
| Adam Fox | NYR | 68.8 | 0.3% |
| Rasmus Dahlin | BUF | 65.7 | 0.2% |
Projected goals saved above expected, from per-game xGoals against. Wins are a tiebreak only, so a good goalie on a bad team is not penalised.
| Player | Team | Proj. GSAx | Win share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck | NJD | 11.3 | 33.8% |
| Igor Shesterkin | NYR | 11.2 | 21.7% |
| Logan Thompson | WSH | 10.1 | 18.9% |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | TBL | 6.9 | 7.2% |
| Ilya Sorokin | NYI | 7.8 | 7.0% |
Rookie-eligible by games played and age, projected from pre-NHL scoring translated to the NHL. Defensemen get modest positional credit.
| Player | Team | Proj. pts | Win share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Hutson | WSH | 38.2 | 22.0% |
| Roman Kantserov | CHI | 47.6 | 19.7% |
| James Hagens | BOS | 46.9 | 17.5% |
| Gavin McKenna | TOR | 45.3 | 13.7% |
| Porter Martone | PHI | 43.2 | 10.3% |
BLM defense and penalty-kill ratings weighted by workload. Scoring is a tiebreak only, so this is not a scoring race. Forwards without a defensive rating are excluded.
| Player | Team | Proj. pts | Win share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Raymond | DET | 81.8 | 60.6% |
| Connor McDavid | EDM | 143.3 | 29.6% |
| Fabian Zetterlund | OTT | 38.4 | 3.0% |
| Zach Benson | BUF | 48.1 | 2.5% |
| Claude Giroux | OTT | 49.6 | 0.9% |
Remaining games simulated with uncertain availability and scoring rates; current-season totals are held fixed.
Voted-award percentages are the share of simulations in which a player tops this model's rule. They are not betting odds and not predicted ballots.
Defensive and penalty-kill ratings are the current BLM snapshot, not a live defensive-performance feed.
Rookie projections are the least certain: they start from pre-NHL scoring translated with fitted league factors, and there is no roster-cut model.
A goalie who has not played once his team is two games in is left out until he does (no injury feed).
No injury feed, no team playoff context, no voter reputation.