VALUE VERDICT

Value Verdict tests how well you read NHL contracts against the BluelineMetrics expected-value model.

1. Each day you get five real NHL contracts, the same for every player.
2. For each one, decide whether the model rates the deal Underpaid, Fair or Overpaid given the player's production, age and position.
3. After each call the answer is revealed with the player's cap hit and the model's expected value, so you can see how big the gap is.
4. Score out of five and share your result. The underlying model compares each cap hit with what comparable players have signed for.

Tip: the model cares about production per dollar, not reputation. A star on a big contract can still be Underpaid, while a mid-priced veteran whose ratings have slipped often grades Overpaid. Age matters too, since older players are expected to decline over the term.