Loading…
Loading…John Carlson is one of the NHL's elite defensemen: his 90.7 overall ranks 13th of 327 rated defensemen on BluelineMetrics.
The standout tool is offensive creation (96), backed by play driving (93); penalty killing (19) is the part of his game that grades lowest.
He peaked at 99.7 in 2021-22 and has not returned to that level since, rating 87.5 last season.
The contract, $8.5M through 2027-28, grades Fair: the model's expected value of $8.7M is within $199K of what he is paid.
His cap hit is the 5th-largest on the Tampa Bay Lightning NHL roster and uses 8.2% of the $104M ceiling; the club currently has $3.66M in cap space.
| Component | Rating (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Offense | 96 |
| Defense | 51 |
| Play driving | 93 |
| Finishing | 77 |
| Power play | 48 |
| Penalty kill | 19 |
| Season | Team | GP | Overall | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | ANA | 71 | 87.5 | 0.5 |
| 2024-25 | WSH | 79 | 86.5 | 0.1 |
| 2023-24 | WSH | 82 | 76.7 | 0 |
| 2022-23 | WSH | 40 | 62.8 | 0.1 |
| 2021-22 | WSH | 78 | 99.7 | 1 |
| 2020-21 | WSH | 52 | 98.2 | 0.5 |
| 2019-20 | WSH | 69 | 93.9 | 0.8 |
| 2018-19 | WSH | 80 | 93.3 | 0.6 |
| 2017-18 | WSH | 82 | 81.8 | 0.2 |
| 2016-17 | WSH | 72 | 51.1 | -0.4 |
Other TBL defensemen by rating: Charle-Édouard D'Astous (84.2), J.J. Moser (69.3), Maxwell Crozier (55.2), Erik Cernak (50.9). See the full Tampa Bay Lightning cap sheet.
How we rate players: each skater's overall is a percentile (0-100) built from offense, defense, play driving, finishing, power-play and penalty-kill impact against players at the same position; goalies are rated on goals saved above expected. Contract value compares the cap hit with the salary the model expects for that level of production, age and position. Figures are updated as new games and signings arrive.